Friday, November 23, 2012

Fantasy Picker: Fantasy Week 5

The thing about Fantasy ball is that you usually know who you want to get, who you need to get, but can't because they're usually in someone else's roster. And lineups are usually grounded on right gambles. For example, who among Kevin Love owners actually had Kevin Love in their lineup for this week? Heck, even T-Wolves fans in attendance were surprised when Love was a game time decision.

Same principle applies to waiver wire pick ups and patience. Do you bank on potential breakout over struggling superstar? I have Josh Smith on my team now and I get the craziest offers for him, because he's been on a downward spiral and a great buy low option especially if his owner's team is struggling, as in my case. For temporary respite, I'd probably consider trading for him now, so that I can use the replacement next week, when the Hawks play just two games. If I can't let go of him by Saturday, I guess I'd just hold on to him and hope for the best for my team.

While Fantasy Guru Rick Kamla and other fantasy writers may give you advise on who to pick up, who to drop, who to play, and who to bench, it really is up to owners if they'd gamble on our educated guesses.

So, on to Week 5 schedule:


*Highlighted in Yellow are teams playing the most games this week.
*Highlighted in Red are teams playing the least games this week


How crappy is it that Miami is playing just two games for the second straight week? Atlanta and Golden State also have only two games this week, so you should plan accordingly on who to sit. With relatively easy schedules on the road for Atlanta, the troika of Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague should be worth a roster spot if you don't have better alternative options. Same goes for LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and a now healthy Dwayne Wade who'll figure to have plenty of minutes against Brooklyn and San Antonio. For Golden State, it seems like David Lee is getting his groove back, Steph Curry is balling and the verdict is out on who will get more shots up; emerging rookie Harrison Barnes or sweet-shooting sophomore Klay Thompson.

Points/Three Point FG


Jason Kidd (PG/SG, NYK)
19-for-36 3pts 8.3ppg

Watching Jason Kidd orchestrate for the Nets back then was fun to watch. You'd think he'd be boring to see considering his physique, but his passes were mind-boggling. He wasn't that great of a shooter, though, and that is why Jason Kidd is one of the truly great ball players I've watched. He is almost exclusively a three point specialist now, transforming his game so that he can still be effective despite his age. The old guy's shooting 50% from three, and through 10 games, he's got just six turnovers against 33 assists. He's still almost 39% available in Y!Fantasy leagues, so if you're in need of consistent numbers with some threes and Kidd's available, he shouldn't be. 

Rasheed Wallace (PF/C, BKN)9-for-32 3pts 4.4 rpg 4% owned
I am buying in to the 'Sheed hype. It looked like he was going to be a joke in New York after his poor performance in Boston last season, but he's really working hard for his minutes now with the Knicks. The Knicks rely on their threes as much as they do on second half defense to win games, and 'Sheed contributes to both. He could anchor a small lineup of Kidd, Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith, and Carmelo Anthony for an offense-heavy lineup. I think he's a better pick than the struggling Steve Novak just because he gives more rebounds and adds swag to the team on the floor. With a pretty easy schedule towards the end of the week, he could get some bigger floor time. 

Gary Neal (PG/SG, SAS)
9.9ppg 8-for-23 3pts 5% owned

This is a risky pick, but if you're in desperate need of three point shooters in a deep league, Gary Neal should be worth a look. He's a fairly good shooter, and he should figure to have minutes off the bench with both Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson out for a while. He should split limited minutes with Patty Mills spelling for Tony Parker at the point, or have Danny Green and Manu play the SF position to get Neal the SG spot. Pop is known to shuffle his bench to distribute minutes, and with four games in the upcoming week, Neal should get around 20mins per game.

Rebounds


Andray Blatche (PF/C, BKN)
5.3rpg 8.9ppg 6% owned

While Reggie Evans made an appearance on this part last week, Blatche may also be worth a look. He's a better scorer than Evans (heck Enrico Villanueva is a better scorer than Evans), and he gets a decent amount of rebounds off the bench. He's a bit of a risky pick with Brook Lopez actually working on the glass now, and Kris Humphries doing his thing, so he could get minutes if he plays well enough. He doesn't shoot a lot of threes, but he's got a pretty decent FG% and should be a nice complement in a team with these stats already (points, rebounds, FG%, FT%)

Tiago Splitter (PF/C, SAS)
3.5rpg 8.1ppg, 4% owned

With Tim Duncan playing like it's 2001 or something, Splitter hasn't had enough time to run the floor. Still, he's the future for the Spurs, and they wouldn't let him rot in the bench while waiting for Duncan to finally call it quits. When he's on the floor, he's been a pretty potent scorer, and he chooses his shots well, so you shouldn't worry about FG%. There's a back to back on the road in Florida as they play Orlando and Miami. If Pop still doesn't let Timmy play back to backs, Splitter just may be able to get majority of the minutes in the Orlando game where he'll be matched up with Big Baby instead of Dwight.

Markieff Morris (PF, PHX)
4.8rpg 8.6ppg, 6% owned

Morris got the starting gig from Scola after an impressive showing in the Suns loss to Miami. If he stays in the starting lineup, he'd give points and boards, but not much else. Their three of their four upcoming games are against teams with energy guys up front, so it might pose a challenge for the sophomore forward.

Tristan Thompson (PF/C, CLE)
8.7rpg 9.2ppg, 31% owned

Anderson Varejao's energy seems to have rubbed off on the sophomore. Thompson has grabbed double digit rebounds in each of his last three games and has been scoring pretty well.

Assists


Jeremy Pargo (PG, CLE)
4ast 28pts 5rebs 4-for-8 3pts, 19% owned vs PHI

It might be a bit rash to add him immediately after a big game, but that big game just earned him valuable minutes from Coach Byron Scott. Even as a backup, he'd be able to distribute the ball to teammates, especially if defenses collapse on him after his impressive offensive showing against Philly. If you're not buying in to the buzz Pargo created against Philly, Donald Sloan and Daniel Gibson should be possible picks for Cleveland's four game trip. Coach Scott will have to shuffle his guards, as they will go up against defensive specialists in Mike Conley (MEM) and Jeff Teague (ATL) and possible defensive nightmares Goran Dragic (PHX) and Damian Lillard (POR).

Jamaal Tinsley (PG, UTA)
5.3apg 1.6rpg, 1% owned

There's a reason why he's just 1% owned, and that's because he can't do much else other than pass the ball. And he's playing for playing time against Randy Foye and Mo Williams, and with weapons like Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson up front, he really just needs to put the ball in their hands wherever they're comfortable. This is another specialty pick, for teams in desperate need for assists and has other cats won.

Steals/Blocks


Alonzo Gee (SF/SF, CLE)
1.9spg 0.6bpg, 30% owned

Gee's one of those truly under the radar players that could be a great glue guy to your team. He has the consistent minutes, and he can fill out the stat sheets on any given night. With the Cavs needing contributions wherever they can, Gee should see a bump up in scoring. If the last three games are any indication of things to come for him, he should be a hot waiver wire pick up soon.

Jermaine O'Neal (C, PHX)
1.5bpg 4.3 rpg, 3% owned

Speaking of big men trying to make a comeback after a failed campaign in Celtic green, O'Neal's playing pretty well as of late, scoring in double digits in each of the last three games. He's also grabbed at least 4 rebounds in all the games that he's played this season, and he still has those defensive instincts to make him block shots on a regular basis despite the reduced minutes and playing behind emerging big man Marcin Gortat.

Tony Allen (SG/SF, MEM)
1.8spg 0.6bpg,37% owned

Allen's more of a specialty pick. He won't give you much, but you're sure to get some steals from him every game. He's not the best shooter, but he can slash to score. He'll help in defensive cats, give rebounds, and occasionally score points.

Overtime:


- The list looks like it has a too much Cleveland players. I guess it can't be helped. Anytime you lose your franchise player, the team's tendency is to look for production elsewhere.

- Detroit's lineup is a mess. The only sure thing for the Pistons is that Greg Monroe will get rebounds. Their guards are rotating, with Kyle Singler actually emerging to compete for minutes against Rodney Stuckey, Brandon Knight, and the seemingly lost in rotation Will Bynum. Andre Drummond and Jason Maxiell have their moments, but their performances fluctuate as often as a politician's lie detector test.

- Brooklyn plays their starters pretty heavily. Pretty difficult to gamble on their bench players to drastically improve your team, but they would make nice complementary players for an already steady lineup.

- Ditto Portland. Their starters could play 30+ minutes per game each.

- Oklahoma has a 6-man rotation going on, with Kevin Martin being the only guy off the bench who can get enough playing time to be a factor. Kendrick Perkins gets significant playing time, but doesn't contribute enough to warrant fantasy consideration. Too bad scowls don't count in the stat sheets.

- How fun is it to be a Durant owner right now? He got his first career triple double because he's getting more assists this year. He's shooting less threes, but at least he's getting nice FG%.

- Speaking of old guys trying to make a comeback after an unsuccessful run in a Boston uniform, Jermaine O'Neal is doing pretty well. He's scored double digit points over the last three games, and has grabbed at least four rebounds in all the games he's played this season. He's also blocking some shots in a reserve role.

- Roy Hibbert got his first career triple double by blocking 11 shots. 11 blocks!

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