Series Picker: PBA Quarterfinals

Week off from Fantasy blog again. Sorry about that. I'll start forecast for next week, under the radar players are hard to pick now, as some stats are bloated by injuries, and you can't really predict injuries through the stat sheets.

Now, on to the PBA Quarterfinals. Games start tomorrow, with the best-of-three matchups taking place at the Big Dome. Like most basketball lovers who write, I'm going to throw out my own picks for these matchups.

(1) Talk N' Text Tropang Texters vs (8) Air21 Express

Air21 squeaked through the eliminations after a brilliant performance from Nino Canaleta. Not taking away from other players, especially Mike Cortez, who seems to have breathed new life into this team since the trade. Still, the only way that the Tropang Texters will get beaten by this gutsy Express team is if they become so overconfident that they'd just try different combinations of players to check out how they'd look on the floor together. Air 21 may not be the same pushover team that they were last season, but I'd be shocked if they won a game against the Texters at this stage.

Not much to talk about here. As good as Rob Reyes, Mark Isip and James Sena are in the frontcourt, Ranidel De Ocampo will just school those boys. Though Wynne Arboleda is still the one of the best defenders at the backcourt, Jason Castro and Jimmy Alapag could take turns running around the aging veteran. For the life of them, Canaleta, Atkins and Cortez won't be able to defend the likes of Castro and Alapag. Nelbert Omolon and John Wilson may be able defenders, but so are Larry Fonacier and Aaron Aban. Energy guy Harvey Carey and the formidable Ali Peek aren't even in this conversation yet.

Pick: Talk N' Text. Hands down. Outside chance of Air 21 making a game out of this, and TNT will probably win by only 7.

(2) San Mig Coffee Mixers vs (7) Petron Blaze Boosters

Petron is such a loaded team that they were one of the favorites coming in to the season. The acquisition of Marcio Lassiter for serviceable players Rey Guevarra and Rabeh Al-Hussaini made Petron even more dangerous, as they now have a rotation featuring clutch shooting Alex Cabagnot, defensive stalwart Denok Miranda, the high flying Joseph Yeo, the explosive Chris Lutz, and reliable bench guy Jojo Duncil to flank Lassiter on the backcourt and wings. Arwind Santos isn't even mentioned in the previous statement. And Jay Washington. And they got the first pick that turned into "The Kraken" Junemar Fajardo. But early season struggles (probably with the coaching confusion) took them down this low in the standings before a late-season recovery saw them winning enough games to get into the playoff picture.

For SMC, there's James Yap and all that he can do for a team, and Peter June Simon who is a superstar in his own right, playing content with getting to play his game without the spotlight on him as much as Yap. Andy Mark Barroca is earning his stripes, and seems to have benefited the most with the name change; he is now dubbed "The Coffee Prince". Wesley Gonzalez is starting, though playing limited minutes. Yancy De Ocampo has been the Tim Duncan of the Philippines as of late, anchoring the SMC offense with fundamental post up moves. Marc Pingris is doing his thing, as well as Rafi Reavis and Jonas Villanueva. Most overlooked, I think, is the way Joe Devance has been playing point-forward for SMC, doing his best imitation of Magic Johnson with all the fancy passing at his size. He's been hitting at a decent shooting clip, and I think he's one of the unsung heroes of this team's success this season.

Pick: San Mig Coffee. It will definitely be a close first game, with either having a chance to win in the end. If it stretches to two games, SMC will probably not let it go and win by at least 6.

(3) Rain Or Shine Elastopainters vs (6) Barangay Ginebra San Miguel Kings

This will be an awesome matchup. The Kings also experienced a bit of a slump after winning their first game, but have since figured out how to win games to get to where they are now. Chris Ellis may not be the Chris the Barangay faithful wanted, but he looks to be the Chris they need. He has delivered highlight plays to the delight of the crowd and has proven to be a good spark off the bench. Fellow rookie Keith Jensen also provides a nice energy, though not as much as Air Ellis. Mark Caguioa and Jayjay Helterbrand have a renewed fire burning, as they have triumphed over injuries that have slowed them down the past several seasons. Billy Mamaril, Rudy Hatfield, Rico Maierhofer and surprisingly, trade acquisitions Elmer Espiritu and Yousif Taha have shown the "Ginebra spirit" with their tenacity. Kerby Raymundo has been reduced to a bench role, but looks like he'll be a factor in the postseason. Allein Maliksi and Rob Labagala have been serviceable when called upon. Oh and LA Tenorio has been quarterbacking well.

For the Elastopainters, they need Jireh Ibanes back in the fold badly. Sure, they have enough talent to compete without him, but he brings so much attitude to the backcourt that only Ryan Arana can match. Paul Lee's back, so that's a huge plus. Chris Tiu's best contribution to the team is his basketball IQ and his fans to complement all the hate the Extra Rice boys are getting. Jervy Cruz has silently had a good season. Gabe Norwood has been up and down, and TY Tang has filled in ably for his injured comrades. Jeff Chan, meanwhile, can't catch a break. He was a shooter, and added slashing to his arsenal. He gets blamed for not taking shots when his team is down, but also gets blamed for taking too many shots when trying to climb out of a hole. I think he's a take charge guy that just can't seem to buy a bucket at the wrong times. If he can add slashing to his game, maybe he can next try to learn proper shot selection. There's always something to improve on.

Pick: Rain or Shine. Bring on all the hate. Honestly, this may be a fan pick. Ginebra won both elimination games against Rain or Shine, the first one being close, and the latest seeing Rain or Shine on the wrong end of a comeback. Still, this will be a different Rain or Shine team when they face off in the quarters as Paul Lee figures to be a problem for the Kings. He won't be the sole factor in the Elastopainters winning, but he gives them another player who can create his own shots, slash, and kick out to teammates. That will be a huge difference maker in the offensive end. Tenorio-Caguioa-Espiritu-Maeirhofer-Mamaril won't do much to defend Lee-Norwood-Chan-Cruz-Quinahan. The crowd will be a huge factor in this series, but ultimately, they're pretty matched up well. I think Rain or Shine will come up with the win on the first game, and have a war on Friday. With Ginebra's back against the wall, they will play all out like they always do on Friday, but Rain or Shine understands that losing on Friday means having to play them again on Sunday, which is not going to be a pleasant experience. Could be 2-0 by Friday, but will not be surprising to see them get it on one more time on a tight Sunday slugfest.

(4)Meralco Bolts vs (5) Alaska Aces

The battle between hustle rookies Calvin Abueva and Cliff Hodge! If only for that, this will be an awesome matchup. They split their regular season encounters, but the first loss didn't see Abueva on the floor just yet. The first time the Bolts met Abueva, he made sure he'd leave a mark, finishing with a monster fantasy line of 20 points 18 rebounds three assists two steals and a block. If that is any indication of what the quarterfinals will look like, then the Aces look like they're going to win this easy. They have all the tools in place, with Casio running the point, Cyrus Baguio playing well, and Dondon Hontiveros still stroking it. Sonny Thoss is overrated, I have gone on to believe, after seeing Alaska play through him.

Meralco will lean on Sol Mercado's hot streak. If he's on, the Bolts are hard to beat. But he does sometimes tend to do too much. Mac Cardona should be able to pick up the slack, but he hasn't done so this year. Ronjay Buenafe should also rediscover his shooting touch if they want to win.

Pick: Meralco Bolts. I love Calvin Abueva. I truly do. It's not that I don't like him to win this one, but I really do think that Alaska will fall because of Luigi Trillo's location and system. Alaska came back from at least 17 down against Petron because the players were given a chance to play their own game. When they run their sets, they usually use Thoss to anchor the triangle much like Tim Cone is using Yancy De Ocampo in SMC. The difference? YDO can actually use his brain. It's not that I think Ryan Gregorio is a much better coach than Luigi, it's just that he gives his players play their games more rather than sticking to the system that he knows. Alaska players do trust their coach, that's why Thoss still gets his touches, but ultimately, it will doom them. Unless Luigi learned from their latest comeback, they will fall to the Bolts.

Fantasy Picker: Week 6

The Spurs got fined USD 250,000 for "disservice to the fans" by not playing his top four players in Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Danny Green against Miami. In Pop's defense, it was their fourth game in five nights. These decisions are inevitable, and knowing how coaches treat their players and how they shuffle players are going to have to be a factor when deciding who to pick for our Fantasy teams. Pop's teams are always 12-15 deep, so every once in a while there's a Matt Bonner shoot fest or a Patty Mills dime show. However, they're too risky to put in your weekly lineup because the Spurs have so many weapons. Even if the Spurs have a four-game week, their roster is not usually the team you look for to get you immediate help because Pop plays the players who work, and not the players that need to be on the floor.

That said, not all four-game weeks will play to the advantage of players from those teams. Knowing these four-game weeks could probably help if you have bench players from those teams, as they are turned to when coaches decide to rest his starters to limit fatigue.

A lot of yellow highlights there, with the Spurs being the only team in red. Pop usually rests his starters on the back end of back-to-backs, and with pretty easy match ups, it might be safe to look for other options in place of Spurs players in your roster.

Points/Three Point FG

Ben Gordon (SG, CHA)
11-for-18 three point shooting last week, 23% owned

Gordon is a streak shooter. He made a name for himself in fourth quarters back in Chicago, never really took off as much as expected when he left for Detroit, and now he's been up and down in Charlotte. But as a team with no real established superstar, Gordon could step up his game and actually win some playing time. He hit seven three-pointers in their loss to Atlanta, which might be a sign that he's getting his shooting groove back. He can also distribute the ball and grab some boards, so he can help on multiple cats.

Alexey Shved (PG/SG)
40% three point shooting over past couple of weeks, 10% owned

Rubio is still out, but there are other players who can be the reason for fans to be excited to watch the Wolves. Shved is one of them. He can pass the ball, he can grab boards, and hit can hit long bombs. He's the first guard off the bench for the Wolves, much like how Taj Gibson is to rebounds in Chicago.

Rebounds

Taj Gibson (PF, CHI)
4.9rpg 1.3bpg, 10% owned

The main back up for the Chicago froncourt is averaging almost 5 boards per game, and he'll give you blocks when given the chance to play. He could be a supplemental pick, meaning you get him to reinforce you already solid rebounding numbers, but he won't probably be your game-changing pick.

Enes Kanter (C, UTA)
18pts 7rebs at OKC, 2% owned

Al Jeff and Millsap are Utah's starters up front, but Derrick Favors has been playing well this season to warrant significant playing time. Now that Favors is probably out because of injury, Kanter might be an option to backup the bigs of Utah.

Assists

Nate Robinson (PG/SG CHI)
5.5apg when playing over 20mins, 23% owned

While Derrick Rose is out, the point guard duties of Chicago is distributed between Nate Robinson and Kirk Hinrich. Robinson is a crazy-athletic spark off the bench, and he can really get the team going when he plays. With a relatively easy schedule up ahead, going up against the struggling Pacers, the hurting Cavs, and the disappointing Pistons and then facing off with the hot Knicks, the bench will probably get to play a lot. When given the opportunity, Robinson does contribute in the assists, points, and sometimes steals department.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG, CHI)
5.6apg 6.2ppg, 31% owned

Captain Kirk is a steadying presence in the Chicago backcourt for the longest time, before being traded away over the past couple of years. He's now back with the Bulls, quarterbacking in the absence of Derrick Rose. If he's available, he could be a nice source of assists, but you can also expect some threes, steals, and rebounds from him. He's a steadier pick than Robinson since he's the starter for the Bulls.

Steals

Jeffrey Taylor (SG/SF/PF, CHA)
2.3spg over last six games, 7% owned

Taylor has seen his playing time increase since leading scorer Gerald Henderson went down. He's now starting alongside young guys like Kemba Walker, MKG, and Byron Mullens. It probably won't be long until their youth movement is complete, with Bismack Biyombo probably edging out starter Brendan Haywood for the Center spot. I haven't seen him play, but considering he's getting more than 20 minutes a game with some 30-minute games, he must be doing something good in there. His numbers look to me like Tony Allen's; he can hit  some threes, but his value actually comes from his knack at picking pockets. Plus he's eligible for three positions, so that could help the flexibility of your team.

Kyle Singler (SG/SF, DET)
1.7spg 12ppg over last four games, 21% owned

The rookie has earned his playing time in Detroit, and is contributing in multiple categories. He's been shooting hot, and as a big guard, he also grabs a number of boards. He can shoot the three as well. He's a pretty intriguing prospect, but he might be of help only in deeper leagues, as Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight figure to eat up minutes at both guard spots.

Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG, LAC)
1.4spg 9.9ppg, 13% owned

The Clippers bench has got to be the best in the NBA right now. Bledsoe, together with Jamaal Crawford and Matt Barnes lead this bench, and are actually nice fantasy options. Bledsoe, for his part, is scoring almost 10 points per game to go along with his steals numbers (has recorded a steal in all but two games this season), and get this; he's blocked a shot at least once in all but five games he's played in this season. The guy's 6-1. Despite not getting much threes from him, you got to love the fact that you can expect one block from him. He's a risky pick despite the Clippers having a four-game week, considering Chauncey Billups is back in the fold, but if their game against the Kings is any indication of their week ahead (where Bledsoe played 26 minutes and recorded 14 points, 4 assists, 4 steals, and 2 blocks), he could still be a positive contributions from the waiver wire.

Blocks

Bismack Biyombo (PF/C, CHA)
2.5bpg 7.2rpg over last four games, 14% owned

He missed two games because of a leg injury, but he's really been playing well as of late. Scouting report on him during last year's draft had him as a premiere blocker, and though he showed flashes of brilliance last season, he didn't really dominate as much as he was expected to last year. He's still young, so the Cats do have patience with him. Over his last two games, he's shown that he can hold his own in the paint, and could probably challenge Brendan Haywood's spot in the starting lineup soon.

Larry Sanders (PF/C, MIL)
10pts 12 rebs 10blks at Minnesota, 37% owned

Sanders might be the hottest pickup on fantasy right now after following up his triple double performance with an eye-opening performance of 18 points, 16 boards and five blocks against the Celtics. He's been blocking shots pretty well when he gets the chance to play, but it will be a bit difficult to understand how coach Skiles shuffles his players, so his minutes might not be as consistent. But if his last two games are any indication, he might just win a starting gig with the Bucks.

Jermaine O'Neal (PF/C, PHX)
1.7bpg 5.2rpg, 13% owned

This isn't the first time I mentioned Jermaine O'Neal on this space, but really, he is effective for a couple of blocks per game. With four upcoming games, that's already an expected eight blocks for your team.

Overtime:

- With Mo Williams back in Utah, Jamaal Tinsley goes back to his bench role and non-relevance in Fantasy.

- D.J. Augustine has been a disappointment in Indiana this year. As a key player in Charlotte, he doesn't get as much minutes as he did before, and less minutes usually means less fantasy production.

- Points are pretty spread out in Cleveland, making it difficult to decide who to pick up. Their most consistent players would have to be Anderson Varejao with his monster rebounds, and Alonzo Gee's all-around game. Gee's only owned in 34% of Y!Leagues, so I think he should be grabbed when available.

- The Clippers have spread out their minutes pretty evenly as well, which translates to their wins, but usually doesn't translate well in the Fantasy world. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan remain the best Fantasy options for the Clips, with other players contributing not so amazing but still serviceable stats. Jamaal Crawford remains a solid contributor in assists and three pointers for them as well.

- David West has been performing at peak form in Indiana, can't say the same for Roy Hibbert and Paul George though. Prior to the start of the season, I thought they were supposed to be one of the better teams in the East. They seem to still be, but they're not performing as much as they should.

- I still still am not too sold on DeMar DeRozan. He's able to score points, but he's getting it without threes. I guess his rebounds is a plus, as it always is getting boards from the guard spot. Maybe he can fit a team that's punting threes and is relying on big man categories.

- Speaking of Toronto, the PF/C position should be monitored. Jonas Valanciunas has shown signs that he might be there long term, but foul trouble keeps him out of the floor. At times that he's not troubled by foul trouble, he still sometimes rides the bench in favor of either Ed Davis or Amir Johnson, both of which can be options on rebounds.

- New York is going to play four games in five nights this week, so Coach Mike Woodson might do a Pop and rest some of his players at the back end of those back to backs to limit fatigue of his players. That said, their bench deserves a look, as they might have increased playing time this week. Probably Steve Novak or Rasheed Wallace?

- Chicago has a similar thing going for them, so look for bench production to be up.