Week off from Fantasy blog again. Sorry about that. I'll start forecast for next week, under the radar players are hard to pick now, as some stats are bloated by injuries, and you can't really predict injuries through the stat sheets.
Now, on to the PBA Quarterfinals. Games start tomorrow, with the best-of-three matchups taking place at the Big Dome. Like most basketball lovers who write, I'm going to throw out my own picks for these matchups.
(1) Talk N' Text Tropang Texters vs (8) Air21 Express
Air21 squeaked through the eliminations after a brilliant performance from Nino Canaleta. Not taking away from other players, especially Mike Cortez, who seems to have breathed new life into this team since the trade. Still, the only way that the Tropang Texters will get beaten by this gutsy Express team is if they become so overconfident that they'd just try different combinations of players to check out how they'd look on the floor together. Air 21 may not be the same pushover team that they were last season, but I'd be shocked if they won a game against the Texters at this stage.
Not much to talk about here. As good as Rob Reyes, Mark Isip and James Sena are in the frontcourt, Ranidel De Ocampo will just school those boys. Though Wynne Arboleda is still the one of the best defenders at the backcourt, Jason Castro and Jimmy Alapag could take turns running around the aging veteran. For the life of them, Canaleta, Atkins and Cortez won't be able to defend the likes of Castro and Alapag. Nelbert Omolon and John Wilson may be able defenders, but so are Larry Fonacier and Aaron Aban. Energy guy Harvey Carey and the formidable Ali Peek aren't even in this conversation yet.
Pick: Talk N' Text. Hands down. Outside chance of Air 21 making a game out of this, and TNT will probably win by only 7.
(2) San Mig Coffee Mixers vs (7) Petron Blaze Boosters
Petron is such a loaded team that they were one of the favorites coming in to the season. The acquisition of Marcio Lassiter for serviceable players Rey Guevarra and Rabeh Al-Hussaini made Petron even more dangerous, as they now have a rotation featuring clutch shooting Alex Cabagnot, defensive stalwart Denok Miranda, the high flying Joseph Yeo, the explosive Chris Lutz, and reliable bench guy Jojo Duncil to flank Lassiter on the backcourt and wings. Arwind Santos isn't even mentioned in the previous statement. And Jay Washington. And they got the first pick that turned into "The Kraken" Junemar Fajardo. But early season struggles (probably with the coaching confusion) took them down this low in the standings before a late-season recovery saw them winning enough games to get into the playoff picture.
For SMC, there's James Yap and all that he can do for a team, and Peter June Simon who is a superstar in his own right, playing content with getting to play his game without the spotlight on him as much as Yap. Andy Mark Barroca is earning his stripes, and seems to have benefited the most with the name change; he is now dubbed "The Coffee Prince". Wesley Gonzalez is starting, though playing limited minutes. Yancy De Ocampo has been the Tim Duncan of the Philippines as of late, anchoring the SMC offense with fundamental post up moves. Marc Pingris is doing his thing, as well as Rafi Reavis and Jonas Villanueva. Most overlooked, I think, is the way Joe Devance has been playing point-forward for SMC, doing his best imitation of Magic Johnson with all the fancy passing at his size. He's been hitting at a decent shooting clip, and I think he's one of the unsung heroes of this team's success this season.
Pick: San Mig Coffee. It will definitely be a close first game, with either having a chance to win in the end. If it stretches to two games, SMC will probably not let it go and win by at least 6.
(3) Rain Or Shine Elastopainters vs (6) Barangay Ginebra San Miguel Kings
This will be an awesome matchup. The Kings also experienced a bit of a slump after winning their first game, but have since figured out how to win games to get to where they are now. Chris Ellis may not be the Chris the Barangay faithful wanted, but he looks to be the Chris they need. He has delivered highlight plays to the delight of the crowd and has proven to be a good spark off the bench. Fellow rookie Keith Jensen also provides a nice energy, though not as much as Air Ellis. Mark Caguioa and Jayjay Helterbrand have a renewed fire burning, as they have triumphed over injuries that have slowed them down the past several seasons. Billy Mamaril, Rudy Hatfield, Rico Maierhofer and surprisingly, trade acquisitions Elmer Espiritu and Yousif Taha have shown the "Ginebra spirit" with their tenacity. Kerby Raymundo has been reduced to a bench role, but looks like he'll be a factor in the postseason. Allein Maliksi and Rob Labagala have been serviceable when called upon. Oh and LA Tenorio has been quarterbacking well.
For the Elastopainters, they need Jireh Ibanes back in the fold badly. Sure, they have enough talent to compete without him, but he brings so much attitude to the backcourt that only Ryan Arana can match. Paul Lee's back, so that's a huge plus. Chris Tiu's best contribution to the team is his basketball IQ and his fans to complement all the hate the Extra Rice boys are getting. Jervy Cruz has silently had a good season. Gabe Norwood has been up and down, and TY Tang has filled in ably for his injured comrades. Jeff Chan, meanwhile, can't catch a break. He was a shooter, and added slashing to his arsenal. He gets blamed for not taking shots when his team is down, but also gets blamed for taking too many shots when trying to climb out of a hole. I think he's a take charge guy that just can't seem to buy a bucket at the wrong times. If he can add slashing to his game, maybe he can next try to learn proper shot selection. There's always something to improve on.
Pick: Rain or Shine. Bring on all the hate. Honestly, this may be a fan pick. Ginebra won both elimination games against Rain or Shine, the first one being close, and the latest seeing Rain or Shine on the wrong end of a comeback. Still, this will be a different Rain or Shine team when they face off in the quarters as Paul Lee figures to be a problem for the Kings. He won't be the sole factor in the Elastopainters winning, but he gives them another player who can create his own shots, slash, and kick out to teammates. That will be a huge difference maker in the offensive end. Tenorio-Caguioa-Espiritu-Maeirhofer-Mamaril won't do much to defend Lee-Norwood-Chan-Cruz-Quinahan. The crowd will be a huge factor in this series, but ultimately, they're pretty matched up well. I think Rain or Shine will come up with the win on the first game, and have a war on Friday. With Ginebra's back against the wall, they will play all out like they always do on Friday, but Rain or Shine understands that losing on Friday means having to play them again on Sunday, which is not going to be a pleasant experience. Could be 2-0 by Friday, but will not be surprising to see them get it on one more time on a tight Sunday slugfest.
(4)Meralco Bolts vs (5) Alaska Aces
The battle between hustle rookies Calvin Abueva and Cliff Hodge! If only for that, this will be an awesome matchup. They split their regular season encounters, but the first loss didn't see Abueva on the floor just yet. The first time the Bolts met Abueva, he made sure he'd leave a mark, finishing with a monster fantasy line of 20 points 18 rebounds three assists two steals and a block. If that is any indication of what the quarterfinals will look like, then the Aces look like they're going to win this easy. They have all the tools in place, with Casio running the point, Cyrus Baguio playing well, and Dondon Hontiveros still stroking it. Sonny Thoss is overrated, I have gone on to believe, after seeing Alaska play through him.
Meralco will lean on Sol Mercado's hot streak. If he's on, the Bolts are hard to beat. But he does sometimes tend to do too much. Mac Cardona should be able to pick up the slack, but he hasn't done so this year. Ronjay Buenafe should also rediscover his shooting touch if they want to win.
Pick: Meralco Bolts. I love Calvin Abueva. I truly do. It's not that I don't like him to win this one, but I really do think that Alaska will fall because of Luigi Trillo's location and system. Alaska came back from at least 17 down against Petron because the players were given a chance to play their own game. When they run their sets, they usually use Thoss to anchor the triangle much like Tim Cone is using Yancy De Ocampo in SMC. The difference? YDO can actually use his brain. It's not that I think Ryan Gregorio is a much better coach than Luigi, it's just that he gives his players play their games more rather than sticking to the system that he knows. Alaska players do trust their coach, that's why Thoss still gets his touches, but ultimately, it will doom them. Unless Luigi learned from their latest comeback, they will fall to the Bolts.
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